Weather shifting to La Niña

Mar 12, 2007 10:24 AM

Dry conditions anticipated for Corn Belt

From News Reports

Officials at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration say that the short El Niño period which began last July is now shifting to a La Niña pattern this spring.

It will be a few months before they know how strong it will be, but La Niña typically means more hurricanes in the Atlantic, fewer in the Pacific, less rain and more heat in the South and a milder spring and summer in the North, according to a NOAA forecaster.

Mike Palecki, regional climatologist at the Midwestern Regional Climate Center, explains that the sea-surface temperatures in the tropical East Pacific are actually cooler than normal now. That indicates moving into a La Niña pattern.

Because of this, several climate prediction professionals are anticipating dry weather conditions for the Corn Belt this summer.

Palecki says the implications of La Niña could mean summer dryness especially in the western Corn Belt.

Palecki goes on to say that some private forecasting firms believe that the La Niña will intensify rapidly and will become a full-blown LaNiña by the summertime. But he adds, “The official word from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) is that we are transitioning to a neutral El Niño Southern Oscillation state but that the models are very uncertain after the March-May period.”

Private forecasting firms tend to be a bit more aggressive in their forecasts than official government forecasts, says Palecki. “I’m not 100% in agreement with the private forecasters who are predicting a strong summertime La Niña,” he says, “but I am leaning towards more of a La Niña outlook than the current CPC position.”

For the Corn Belt, spring soil moisture levels should be adequate, however, no matter what type of weather conditions develop this summer, points out Palecki. But he adds that it is still too early to accurately predict precipitation levels for the summer.

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